Photovoltaic Price War
“The price war sacrifices profits; avoiding it risks losing market share.” This saying has circulated in the photovoltaic industry for years, but now it is becoming a reality. In 2024, photovoltaic giants faced losses exceeding €6.5 billion, with the price war not only eroding profits but also pushing many companies to the brink of survival.
In 2024, the photovoltaic industry faced an unprecedented “darkest moment.” As market competition intensified, losses became the norm among industry giants, while profitability became a rarity.
For example, JinkoSolar, the world’s leading module supplier, reported a revenue of €12.04 billion in 2024, a 21.96% year-on-year decline, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of only €11.78 million. Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit even showed a loss of €131.56 million.
Another major player, Trina Solar, recorded a revenue of €10.44 billion in 2024 but reported a net loss of €449.15 million, with an adjusted net loss of €675.87 million, marking a steep 190.35% decline year-on-year.
Additionally, multiple leading companies, including Daqo New Energy, LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and JA Solar, also reported significant losses, with TCL Zhonghuan and LONGi Green Energy forecasting losses of €1.15 billion and €1.14 billion, respectively. Tongwei Co. expects a loss of at least €971.36 million, marking its first loss since going public.
As of February 10, 43 photovoltaic companies had released their 2024 earnings forecasts, with 31 of them projecting losses, accounting for over 70%. The total losses exceed €6.5 billion.
Losses of Major Photovoltaic Companies in 2024(Unit: Billion Euros)
| Company | Revenue (€ Billion) | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (€ Billion) | Loss Status | Main Causes of Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JinkoSolar | €120.41 | €0.12 | Mild Loss (Excluding non-recurring items: -€1.32) | Decline in module prices |
| Trina Solar | €104.43 | -€4.49 | Severe Loss | Price war, declining gross margin |
| LONGi Green Energy | Not disclosed | -€11.44 | Huge Loss | Price war, technological transition |
| Tongwei Co. | Not disclosed | -€9.75 | First-time Loss | Sharp drop in silicon prices |
| Canadian Solar | €60.01 | €2.98 | Only Profitable Company | Growth in energy storage business |
How Can Photovoltaic Giants Break Through?
The price war has pushed the industry to the brink of survival, forcing photovoltaic companies to seek new paths for transformation. In response to the crisis, different enterprises are exploring diversified development strategies, with some already seeing initial success.
Diversification Strategies of Photovoltaic Companies
| Diversification Strategy | Representative Companies | Key Actions | Main Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| PV + Energy Storage | Canadian Solar | Expanded 6.5GWh energy storage shipments, globally deployed large-scale storage projects | Successfully turned a profit, with a net profit of €2.98 billion |
| PV + Hydrogen | LONGi Green Energy | Developed green hydrogen electrolyzers, signed a €7.6 billion hydrogen project | Aiming to build a closed-loop system of 'PV Hydrogen Production + Chemical Conversion' |
| Technology Upgrades | Jinko, LONGi | Iterated TOPCon, HJT, and BC cell technologies to improve conversion efficiency | Increasing competition, profitability remains limited in the short term |
| Scenario Innovation | Tongwei Co. | Developed the 'Fishery-Solar Integration' model, combining photovoltaics with modern aquaculture | Self-invested PV power stations account for 15% of new installations |
Impact of the Price War on the Entire Photovoltaic Industry Chain
Over the past year, the photovoltaic price war has affected the entire industry chain, from upstream silicon materials to midstream module manufacturing and downstream power plant investments, with each segment facing varying degrees of challenges.
Upstream Silicon Material:
Oversupply in the market has led to a price collapse. At the end of 2023, silicon prices remained above €26/kg, but by early 2024, they had fallen below €6.50/kg—a drop of over 75%. This sharp decline significantly reduced the profits of leading companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy. Tongwei expects a net loss of €1.27 billion in 2024, while Daqo’s gross margin has plummeted from 60% in 2023 to below 20%, marking the start of an industry-wide “capacity reduction” phase.
Midstream Module Manufacturing:
The price war has further squeezed company profits. By early 2024, the price of 182mm modules had fallen below €0.13/W, with some bidding projects reaching as low as €0.10/W. Leading manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar have leveraged N-type TOPCon technology to maintain slight profitability through premium pricing per watt. However, small and mid-sized module manufacturers are struggling, accelerating market elimination. It is estimated that by 2025, more than 50% of small and mid-sized module manufacturers in China will exit the market, leading to further industry consolidation.
Downstream Power Plant Investment:
While falling module prices have reduced the investment cost of photovoltaic projects, making it possible for global new PV installations to exceed 350GW in 2024, financing difficulties have emerged as a new challenge. With declining overall profitability in the PV sector, banks have become more cautious about financing PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) projects, raising lending thresholds. Additionally, PPA contract prices have dropped significantly; for example, in the European market, PPA contract rates have fallen from €70-80/MWh in 2022 to €40-50/MWh in 2024, directly affecting investor return expectations.
To navigate these challenges, an increasing number of companies are adopting the “PV + Energy Storage” model, optimizing power scheduling through energy storage systems to enhance project profitability. It is estimated that by 2025, over 30% of new PV projects will integrate energy storage.
Overall Industry Outlook:
The photovoltaic industry chain is undergoing profound adjustments:
- Upstream:The silicon sector is under pressure to cut excess capacity.
- Midstream:Module manufacturing is experiencing rapid market consolidation.
- Downstream:Power plant investors are balancing cost reductions with financing constraints.
By 2025, the pace of industry restructuring will accelerate. Only companies with technological advantages, global market presence, and strong financial backing will be able to take the lead in the next wave of market competition.
Impact of the Price War on the Entire Photovoltaic Industry Chain
Over the past year, the photovoltaic price war has affected the entire industry chain, from upstream silicon materials to midstream module manufacturing and downstream power plant investments, with each segment facing varying degrees of challenges.
Upstream Silicon Material:
Oversupply in the market has led to a price collapse. At the end of 2023, silicon prices remained above ¥200/kg, but by early 2024, they had fallen below ¥50/kg—a drop of over 75%. This sharp decline significantly reduced the profits of leading companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy. Tongwei expects a net loss of €9.75 billion in 2024, while Daqo’s gross margin has plummeted from 60% in 2023 to below 20%, marking the start of an industry-wide “capacity reduction” phase.
Midstream Module Manufacturing:
The price war has further squeezed company profits. By early 2024, the price of 182mm modules had fallen below ¥1/W, with some bidding projects reaching as low as ¥0.8/W. Leading manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar have leveraged N-type TOPCon technology to maintain slight profitability through premium pricing per watt. However, small and mid-sized module manufacturers are struggling, accelerating market elimination. It is estimated that by 2025, more than 50% of small and mid-sized module manufacturers in China will exit the market, leading to further industry consolidation.
Downstream Power Plant Investment:
While falling module prices have reduced the investment cost of photovoltaic projects, making it possible for global new PV installations to exceed 350GW in 2024, financing difficulties have emerged as a new challenge. With declining overall profitability in the PV sector, banks have become more cautious about financing PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) projects, raising lending thresholds. Additionally, PPA contract prices have dropped significantly; for example, in the European market, PPA contract rates have fallen from €70-80/MWh in 2022 to €40-50/MWh in 2024, directly affecting investor return expectations.
To navigate these challenges, an increasing number of companies are adopting the “PV + Energy Storage” model, optimizing power scheduling through energy storage systems to enhance project profitability. It is estimated that by 2025, over 30% of new PV projects will integrate energy storage.
Overall Industry Outlook:
The photovoltaic industry chain is undergoing profound adjustments:
- Upstream:The silicon sector is under pressure to cut excess capacity.
- Midstream:Module manufacturing is experiencing rapid market consolidation.
- Downstream:Power plant investors are balancing cost reductions with financing constraints.
By 2025, the pace of industry restructuring will accelerate. Only companies with technological advantages, global market presence, and strong financial backing will be able to take the lead in the next wave of market competition.
Is 2025 a Turning Point for the Photovoltaic Industry?
The year 2025 may mark a true inflection point for the photovoltaic industry. The aftermath of the price war continues, reshaping the market landscape: some companies are trapped in the mire of low-price competition, while others are finding new opportunities through technological advancements, innovative business models, and international expansion.
As module prices approach their lowest limits, the industry has shifted from an expansion-driven competition to a battle for market share, rewriting the rules of survival. Low pricing is no longer the key to success—technological upgrades, business model innovation, supply chain integration, and synergies with emerging sectors such as energy storage and hydrogen are becoming the new competitive focus.
While 2025 may not mark the end of the price war, it will be a pivotal year in shaping the industry’s new order. Only companies that can identify growth opportunities amid market turbulence will be able to navigate the industry’s transformation and enter a new cycle of development.
Since 2008, Maysun Solar has been dedicated to producing high-quality photovoltaic modules. Our range of solar panels, including IBC, HJT and TOPCon panels, and balcony solar stations, are manufactured using advanced technology and offer excellent performance and guaranteed quality. Maysun Solar has successfully established offices and warehouses in many countries and built long-term partnerships with top installers! For the latest quotes on solar panels or any photovoltaic-related inquiries, please contact us. We are committed to serving you, and our products provide reliable assurance.
References
China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA). (2024). 2024 China Photovoltaic Industry Development Report. http://www.chinapv.org.cn
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). (2024). 2024 Solar Market Outlook: Global Capacity Growth, Module Price Trends, and Technology Advancements. https://about.bnef.com
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Renewable Energy Market Report 2024: Solar Industry Chain and Market Forecasts. https://www.iea.org/reports
SolarPower Europe. (2024). SolarPower Europe Market Report 2024: PPA Price Trends and Market Projections. https://www.solarpowereurope.org
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